Nor’easter to Bring Periods of Heavy Rain to New Jersey
A coastal storm system will make for a soggy Tuesday across the Garden State, and showers could continue through early Wednesday.
Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, November 10, 2015...
Yes, it's a Nor'easter
You may have gotten freaked out by some of the terminology used by my meteorological colleagues regarding the storm system that has already rained over South Jersey since Monday night. Yes, it's technically a nor'easter. Yes, it's going to rain — possibly heavily at times. No, we really don't have *that* much reason for concern.
First... A "nor'easter" refers to a specific storm track... It does NOT necessarily have to do with snow and coastal flooding (although they certainly CAN cause such things). The term refers to a moisture-rich coastal storm that originates around the Gulf of Mexico and slides up the Atlantic coast. And notice our wind direction today - out of the "nor'east". Hence, the name. (I often refer to these setups as a less-ominous-sounding "coastal storm".)
Second... It's still too warm for snow. Yes, Monday morning's low temperatures were in the 20s and 30s... but our next widespread freeze is about a week away. For a storm to bring snow to the Garden State, the timing of the heaviest precipitation has to match up perfectly with the arrival of sub-freezing air. That is just not going to happen here.
Third... While this storm system will develop a few localized downpours, there has been pretty good model agreement that the very heaviest deluges will stay near the center of the storm, just off the Jersey Shore. Modeled precipitation for New Jersey locations ranges from 0.2" to 2.2" depending on where the bands of moderate to heavy rain actually sets up. Generally the southern coast of New Jersey will be prone to the highest rainfall totals through Wednesday morning.
The bottom line for today is that it's going to be a wet day overall, and I think it would be wise to have an umbrella handy all day. (Use extra caution driving today — wet leaves are very slippery!) There may be some lull in the rainfall action through the middle of the day, but models show moderate to heavy rain will return later tonight. Any coastal impacts from this storm, including flooding and erosion, should be minor.
Clearing for Veterans Day
There may still be some showers on-going when we wake up Wednesday morning. Our weather should dry out considerably by about 10 a.m. tomorrow, although models show some showers may linger in far North Jersey through the early afternoon. In general, skies will turn partly sunny for Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will be slightly above-normal and comfortable, in the lower 60s.
More Showers, and Another Cooldown
Our next cold front will approach on Thursday. It is expected to be fast-moving, but could carry a bit of a punch. So a quick shot of rain is expected on Thursday, with a round of gusty showers and/or thunderstorms possible. At the moment, the best timing for this rain will be during the daytime hours, between late morning and early evening. Severe weather is unlikely. When it's not raining on Thursday, skies be mostly cloudy and temperatures will stay mild in the lower 60s.
Behind the front will come another shot of cool autumn air, that will slowly leak into New Jersey through Friday and the weekend. Despite beautiful sunshine, Friday's highs will likely end up in the upper 50s and Saturday will top out in the lower to mid 50s.
One final note... Yesterday, I briefly mentioned Tropical Depression 12 over the Bahamas... That storm has now become Tropical Storm Kate. The forecast still takes Kate out to sea with no impacts on the U.S. East Coast.