Blustery! 40+ mph gusts, temps 15 degrees below normal across NJ Monday

The Bottom Line

This week's forecast is frontloaded, with wind and cold topping our weather headlines. Once the wind calms down, with minimal shower chances, we'll enjoy high pressure and high temperatures by next weekend.

Monday

Following a strong cold front on Sunday, a new cooler, drier air mass is now arriving on a brisk westerly wind. Gusts of 30 mph are almost a guarantee Monday, with 40+ mph gusts possible. A Wind Advisory has been posted for all 21 counties in New Jersey, suggesting the wind could make driving difficult, bring down trees and branches, and cause sporadic power outages. The peak wind gusts look to blow through NJ from mid to late morning Monday.

The combination of wind and cold is called blustery, and this Monday forecast definitely qualifies. 30s in the morning, and only lower-mid 40s in the afternoon. That is a full 15 degrees below seasonal normals — more typical of mid-December than early November.

In general, we'll see bright sunshine and blue skies. The only exception is a line of fizzling lake-effect snow showers, that may clip NW NJ Monday morning.

The wind will continue to blow Monday night, which is a double-edged sword of sorts. On the one hand, the air will stay stirred up, preventing thermometers from crashing too low. So we'll only drop into the mid 30s across most of the state. (A freeze is possible, north and west.) However, we do have to talk about the wind chill (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) for the first time this season. The wind chill may dip into the 20s by Tuesday morning — we're going well beyond just "jacket weather" here, people.

Tuesday

Another weak disturbance looks to spark some snow and rain showers early Tuesday morning, in the northern half of the state. (I'm thinking 6 a.m. to 10 a.m.) The wind could cause one of those showers to cause a bit squall-ish, so low visibility could be a (brief and limited) issue.

The rest of the state and the rest of the day will be partly sunny. Tuesday will start breezy (30 mph gusts), with calming conditions prevailing by the afternoon. High temperatures will improve slightly, to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday

The wind is done, and the warmup is on! Sunny, calm, and seasonable with highs jumping into the lower 60s.

Thursday

More sunshine, with late-day clouds. High temperatures will bump firmly to the mild side, in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday & Beyond

I have to admit, the forecast for next weekend is looking pretty spectacular at the moment. Thermometers on Friday should reach the upper 60s to around 70, with early morning clouds then clearing skies. Lower 70s on Saturday and Sunday will be our warmest days in almost two weeks. (A perfect opportunity to put up holiday decorations, if I do say so myself!)

Our next chance of rain isn't modeled until Veterans' Day (11/11) in the middle of next week. And even that one is influenced by tropical moisture that may or may not even develop. So we enter November with another quiet, pleasant stretch of weather. Enjoy!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.