The Bottom Line
We are counting down the final minutes and hours of Spring. The Summer Solstice officially arrives this Wednesday at 10:57 a.m. And with the seasons will come a noticeable change in the weather, as we transition from warm and summery, to cooler and cloudier and unsettled.
Monday looks great, almost a repeat of Sunday's splendid weather. And then a shower chance crops up on Tuesday. A few more raindrops may bubble up into New Jersey on Wednesday. And the unsettled, unseasonably cool trend accelerates through the second half of the week. If I had to guess, at this point, the wettest and stormiest days look to be Friday and Saturday.
A beautiful morning is underway across New Jersey. We've got sunshine and 60s. And some haze from wildfire smoke in the upper air. Not at the surface, so no worries of a smell or air quality issues Monday.
High temperatures should top 80 degrees across most of the state. Morning sun will give way to clouds. And a prominent on-shore breeze (out of the southeast) should keep temperatures along the Jersey Shore much cooler than farther inland. Closer to 70 than 80+.
You may notice a hint of humidity in the air Monday night. Low temperatures will dip into the lower 60s, which is par for mid-June.
There's still a lot to like about Tuesday's forecast. But it will be a mostly cloudy day. And temperatures will turn cooler, topping out around the mid 70s across NJ.
Plus, I do have to include a rain chance. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may popup late-day. Best chance would be far northern and/or far southern New Jersey. Again, isolated — you should not change or cancel your plans necessarily, but definitely watch the sky.
As the week presses on, a broad area of rain will be passing to our south. Meanwhile, an area of strong high pressure to the north will "block" that storm system in the area for a while.
So Wednesday's forecast looks even cloudier and cooler. High temperatures will barely reach the lower 70s — now we are talking about the neighborhood of 10 degrees below normal.
Some model guidance indicates showers will lift from south to north on Wednesday, potentially dampening our day. The big question is how far north will those showers get? For now, I favor a southern shower. But I wouldn't rule out a few raindrops everywhere in the state.
Thursday & Beyond
Thursday probably turns dry, although we'll keep the clouds. And miserably cool temperatures around 70 degrees.
From Friday to Saturday, we will likely see several waves of rain pass through New Jersey. There may be some challenging conditions at times for outdoor activities. Forecast models put some serious instability and shear over New Jersey on Saturday specifically, which raises the possibility of thunderstorms and severe weather.
It looks like the "block" will lift by Sunday, leading to a fast return to bright and warm weather. Heck, let's just call it hot, as 90 degrees would be in play for Sunday and next Monday.
But again, the unsettled part of this forecast is pretty hazy, as the details of that "block" are still coming together. We need the rain. I hope we get the rain. But not too much — it's just no fun starting summer with rain, rain, rain.