NJ weather: Each of the next 7+ days carries a chance of rain
The Bottom Line
New Jersey's weather over the last two and half months have been pretty boring. Lots of dry air and dry weather.
But now — perfectly timed to the changing of the seasons — we face a period of increasingly unsettled, steamy weather through the rest of this week. A storm system "blocked" to our south will continually funnel clouds and pockets of rain into New Jersey. And yes, the forecast contains a chance of rain for the next 7 days, at least. Most forecast models paint 2 to 4 inches of rain over NJ — remember, we desperately need the rain, so this is good news.
The sticky wicket here is nailing down the details, which is very difficult in such an unsettled and dynamic weather pattern. I'll do my best to lay out the timing of raindrops vs. peeks of sun, along with temperatures, winds, humidity, etc.
You will already notice a difference first thing Tuesday morning. Rather than basking in beautiful sunshine, as we did for most of Monday, we're socked in with clouds. With some patchy fog. Temperatures are in the 60s, with what I would call "moderate" humidity — a hint of stickiness in the air.
Skies will stay mostly cloudy Tuesday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s or so by the afternoon. (Cooler 70-ish at the Shore, possibly touching 80 degrees to the southwest.)
The chance of rain Tuesday is very limited — most of New Jersey will stay dry. However, through about Noon, a few showers may brush past the southern edge of the state. And then later on, a popup shower is possible in far northern New Jersey.
Tuesday night will remain cloudy but quiet. Temperatures will dip into the lower 60s or so.
The Summer Solstice officially arrives at 10:57 a.m. Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures go down as the chance of rain goes up.
Slowly but steadily, bands of rain showers will rise from south to north Wednesday. It may take a while for raindrops to reach North Jersey. Maybe not even until nighttime. But everyone will get wet eventually.
With lots of clouds and a prominent on-shore breeze, temperatures will struggle to get past 70 degrees. That is unseasonably cool for late June. (Keep in mind, we are less than a month away from the average hottest part of the year.)
The chance of showers and thunderstorms continues. It does not look like a total washout of a day. But it does not look very pleasant at all.
Along with the raindrops, expect cloudy skies and highs only in the upper 60s.
Friday & Beyond
On Friday, humidity will soar. As dew points skyrocket into the 70s, we enter the "steamy zone". (For the first time this season, maybe?) Temperatures will also increase, to about 80 degrees.
So, as our unsettled weather continues, that raises the risk of thunderstorms (rather than lighter showers). Severe weather may be a concern on Friday, especially if sun can break through and "cook" the atmosphere.
Saturday looks almost identical, with a few pockets of showers and thunderstorms (mainly late-day). High temperatures will reach the lower 80s, with high humidity.
Unsettled 80s continue for at least Sunday and Monday. It's going to take a strong cold front — complete air mass replacement — to kick this blocking pattern out. I do not see that happening until the middle of next week. So quite the interesting, soggy end to June.
One more important note: Tropical Storm Bret has become the Atlantic's second named storm of the 2023 season. Currently 2,700 miles southeast of New Jersey, it is expected to intensify into a hurricane while aiming for the Caribbean. No immediate impact to our weather or waves, but we are always watching.
As Spring disappears, so must I. My wife Amy and I are so excited to welcome our baby boy into the world soon. And I am so appreciative to my colleagues and managers at Townsquare Media for allowing me some much-needed extended time off as our family expands.
As a result, you will not hear me on the radio over the next few weeks. And the CMDZ weather blog will take a hiatus through mid-July. The only exception will be any "big storm" or significant threat of severe weather, which we will handle on a case-by-case basis.
Thanks to all for the well wishes, and see you soon!