NJ weather: Cooler end to May, hot start to June

The Bottom Line

Back to work and back to school on this Tuesday. We are about to turn the calendar page from May to June. The school year is winding down. And summer is just 23 days away.

After beautiful weather throughout the Memorial Day Weekend — except along the southern edge of New Jersey — we will keep the dry conditions and bright skies through the rest of the week. There is still a storm system spinning just to our south, which will produce some cloud cover but little to no rainfall over New Jersey. Meanwhile, an on-shore breeze will keep temperatures cooler and the surf rough for Tuesday.

A warming trend will kick in later this week, as temperatures push into the 80s and even 90s.

Our next chance of widespread rain will be from a backdoor cold front on Saturday. Next week may generally turn more unsettled too.

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Tuesday

A dome of high pressure has been mainly effective at keeping raindrops, clouds, and heat away throughout this holiday weekend. And that will continue.

Tuesday's weather suffers from a prominent on-shore breeze. So temperatures will end up 5 to 10 degrees cooler than on Memorial Day Monday. We're starting off in the comfortable 50s. And highs are forecast to reach the lower 70s Tuesday afternoon. The Shore will be cooler, firmly in the 60s.

The surf is still churned up, raising red flags for rip currents again.

Skies will be mostly sunny Tuesday.

However, there is one more element to Tuesday's forecast: Smoke. A wildfire is burning over Nova Scotia, in eastern Canada. The thick smoke from that fire will penetrate New Jersey's atmosphere, leading to a hazy, milky, washed-out appearance to the sky. You may even smell some smoke in the air as concentrations thicken up Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night will remain problem-free, with clear skies and cool temperatures around 50.

Wednesday

No big changes or surprises. I can't completely rule out an isolated sprinkle. Skies will average partly sunny — likely clearer to the north and west, cloudier to the south and east.

High temperatures will push into the lower to mid 70s, as that on-shore breeze lets up a bit. Another stellar late spring day.

Thursday

As we kickoff the month of June, our warmup continues.

Highs on Thursday will shoot for the lower 80s. (Away from the ocean, at least.) Skies will be mostly sunny. And, just like Wednesday, an isolated shower may try to creep in from the southeast. Have no fear though — it will be another pleasant, warm day. Humidity levels will be on the rise too, making the air feel noticeably more sticky by Thursday night.

Friday

Downright hot to end the workweek.

Highs on Friday will shoot for 90+ degrees across inland New Jersey. The Shore will still benefit from that sea breeze, keeping temperatures cooler. (Although I suspect 80 is a possibility at mainland beaches.)

The rest of the forecast will be similar to the rest of the week. Partly sunny. Chance of haze. Maybe an isolated shower, but I doubt it.

The Weekend & Beyond

Saturday is the iffy day in this forecast — not a great way to start the first weekend of June.

A backdoor cold front will introduce clouds and cooler temperatures on Saturday. It could turn a full 25 degrees cooler than Friday, with highs in the upper 60s (especially near the Shore).

There is a rain chance too. But I don't want to focus too much on wet weather just yet. The GFS model paints spotty sprinkles over NJ in the morning and midday hours. The Euro model favors a quick hit of scattered thunderstorms around lunchtime. We will get a better idea of potential rainfall as the week goes on.

As it stands, Sunday looks to be the drier, brighter, warmer day of the weekend, back in the 70s.

Long-range guidance shows a stretch of unsettled weather next week. That would lead to clouds and some much-needed rainfall. I will believe it when I see it — there's nothing there to spark a large-scale pattern change, so those wet weather chances could just disappear by the time next week rolls around.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.