Tracking NJ’s next storm: Quick snow to soaking rain this weekend

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

The Bottom Line

There is still a lot going on in this forecast — the parade of storms continues, with quite a roller coaster of temperatures too. But we are looking forward to 48 consecutive hours of storm-free weather. Hooray!

As rain, drizzle, mist, and fog wrap up Thursday, our next weather story is the return of colder air. Hopefully you have some way of keeping warm this Valentine's Day.

Then our next storm system rides in this weekend. It looks like a snow to rain situation for the vast majority of the state. And we could see some snow and ice accumulations on the front-side of the storm, especially in North Jersey. Much of Sunday could be a washout, with pockets of heavy rain soaking the Garden State.

Arctic air blasts us again next week. And that may set the stage for our next next potential winter storm.

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Thursday

Thursday begins wet, with pockets of rain, drizzle, and mist around New Jersey. Radar continues to show some icy mix in and around Sussex County only, with temperatures near 30 degrees. But that is the only place in the state with an icing concern Thursday morning.

It is going to stay damp and inclement through around midday. I expect final raindrops to fall in New Jersey between about 10 a.m. and 1p.m.

Then we will see partial clearing through Thursday afternoon. Along with a brisk wind, gusting over 20 mph.

It will be a fairly mild day, with high temperatures near 50 degrees for most. (Cooler in North Jersey though, closer to lower-mid 40s.)

However, do not get used to this one-day warmup. Arctic air returns to New Jersey Thursday night, and temperatures will take a tumble. Look for lows in the mid 20s. Wind chills ("feels like" temperatures) may dip into the teens.

Keep in mind, with a hard freeze predicted for most (if not all) of New Jersey, any wet surfaces, puddles, and/or slush will turn to ice overnight. Bundle up and watch your step.

Friday

Friday will be bright and sunny! A welcome sight for Valentine's Day, especially after our recent barrage of storms.

However, it will also be cold. And breezy, for at least the first half of the day. Wah wah.

High temperatures will only reach the mid 30s — that is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid-February.

Saturday-Sunday

Here we go again. Our next storm system will impact New Jersey for more than half of the President's Day Weekend. And we are talking about both impactful wintry and wet weather this time around.

This will be a snow to rain situation for the entire state, as warming temperatures accompany bands of precipitation. The longer it snows (and/or icy mix falls), the more likely you are to get some light accumulations.

However, the storm timeline is a big question mark, as models have not settled on the exact timing of first flakes and the inevitable changeover to rain. My initial forecast call is based on an afternoon onset, although it could slide to the morning or even the evening hours instead.

For approximately the southern half of the state, a couple hours of snow will quickly flip over to rain. It may be wintry long enough for a healthy coating on the ground. However, accumulations and travel impacts will be limited in both magnitude and duration.

North of the I-195 and I-78 corridors, snow may last a bit longer before changing over to rain. I could see a good inch of accumulation by Saturday evening. (Maybe even two in a coldest-case scenario.)

Far northern New Jersey, along and north of I-80, will hold on to snow, icy mix, and/or freezing rain for a bit longer. That could make both Saturday afternoon and Saturday night rather wintry and slippery. I have settled on a forecast of 1 to 3 inches of snow and up to a quarter-inch (a "glaze") of ice accumulation — but some models do show higher. I think the northern edge of the state will still warm enough for a completely flip to rain eventually.

Total rainfall may exceed an inch, especially where it changes over earliest. That is some healthy rain — which we desperately need, since we have been battling drought since June.

Rain clouds will depart and skies should start to clear Sunday afternoon. We could taste some really warm air temporarily, as high temperatures in South Jersey potentially touch 60 degrees!

I look forward to further pinpointing the timing and impacts of this storm, so you can plan your weekend accordingly.

The Extended Forecast

Next week, we return to "arctic blast" territory. Highs on Monday will tumble to the 30s. And Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to get out of the 20s.

That brings us to our next potential winter storm, centered on the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. At this resolution, there is a clear signal for a storm in our vicinity. But will it be a direct hit with heavy snow? Will it veer inland, yielding a warmer, rainier scenario? Or will it steer completely out to sea, leaving us cold and dry?

All three of those options are on the table. I will say the worst-case scenario involves about a foot and a half of snow accumulation — I think you would agree that would be a "major" storm.

However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. This is a zero-confidence forecast. And anyone who says otherwise — anyone who posts a specific snowfall map, for instance, is lying to you.

For now, we sit and wait and watch. Once this weekend's storm has passed, we should have a better view of next week. If there are alarm bells to

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.